There’s a site called 270towin.com (because you need 270 electoral votes to win the Presidential election) where you can play around with the election map, change states from red to blue, etc. It brings me minutes of entertainment. It has also made me more confident that Obama will lose in 2012. Here’s my expert analysis:
First, most seem to forget that Obama was trailing McCain until the economy took a pupe. John McCain was a pretty terrible candidate. Given the fact that there have been few times in history that would have been easier for a Democrat to win, I think Obama’s campaign brilliance is extremely exaggerated.
Then with the new census, conservative states picked up net of 6 electoral votes. That already takes Republicans from 173 to 179.
Let’s say I’m correct that the Republican ticket will be Mitch Daniels and Marco Rubio. Obama barely won both of their states in ’08 and I would put IN and FL into the Republican column. That takes Republicans from 179 to 219.
The two other states that I think are a pretty safe bet to switch are Virginia and North Carolina. That would bring us to 247. 23 to go.
There are many states that shifted heavily towards Republicans in the 2010 elections and many swing states that will be up for grabs with Obama being much less popular. I think the following states are possibilities to go from blue to red: OH, PA, WI, CO, IA, NM, NV, NH, MI, plus the split NE vote.
I’d say with OH swinging very heavily in 2010 and Obama having a -10 favorability in PA, it’s very likely he loses at least one of those.
With Ohio, that would bring the Republican to 265, and they would just need to pick up any one of IA, CO, NM, WI, MI, or NV.
With Pennsylvania, that would bring the Republican to 267 and you could just add NH to that list of possible pick ups.
And if they don’t win either OH or PA, they could still win by picking up a combination such as IA, CO, NM, and NV. Losing both OH and PA would make things very difficult but still plausible.
My expert prediction: Mitch Daniels and Marco Rubio win the election by carrying McCain’s states plus IN, FL, VA, NC, OH, IA, and NV. They win 277 – 261.