The election is going to come down to the economy. Too many people spaz out whenever another topic comes up, but it’s not going to change anything. Commentators want to credit stupid crap like Sandra Fluke’s magnum condoms to explain changes in the polls.
Here is what has happened: Once the polls returned to normal after killing bin Laden, it has exactly followed the economy. Last summer, the economy slowed back down, we had a month of exactly Zero new jobs, and Obama’s numbers tanked. Things stayed the same till the end of the year.
Then, around December and then through February, a warmer than normal winter artificially inflated the economic indicators and Obama’s numbers shot back up. They were going up until the March job numbers showed another slowdown, GDP was slowing, and then April’s jobs were even worse. In the past month or so, in the only two polls that really matter right now – Gallup and Rasmussen (only ones doing daily tracking and screening those they poll) – Romney has gone from down a few points to Obama, to leading by a few points.
Topics besides the economy can be talked about between now and November. Voters aren’t as stupid as you think, they know how the economy is going because they live in the world. The economy should generally be the main topic between now and November, but people get bored and it’s not a big deal.