Consumer spending flat. (this is actually a good thing long-term, but bad for June job numbers)
This, mixed with the elevated jobless claims, seems very possible that we lost jobs in June.
As you know, the economy is currently turning the longest corner in the history of everything. Bad news, it’s such a long corner that we keep having to stop for snacks or something. We currently seem to be in the middle of one of those pit stops.
The jobs created have fallen in each of the past 5 months, from 243,000 in January to just 69,000 in May. And next Friday might be another sad day for Obama.
In May, the weekly jobless claims averaged 376,000. In June, they have averaged 386,750 per week. And that number includes this week, which hasn’t been revised up yet – and they have been revised up every week for the past year. This is the highest level since November.
These elevated jobless claims might not be a big deal if we had stronger growth, but we’re currently at 1.9% growth and have shown no signs of improvement.
So it’s looking like George Bush might strike again on July 6.